A new attack on Kurdish autonomy from Baghdad. The latest decisions of the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court can hardly be interpreted in any other way. Everything seems aimed at stripping the regional status the Kurds obtained under the 2005 constitution.
The world will not care much that Kurdish civil servants must, according to the highest Iraqi judges, no longer be paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government, but by the central government in Baghdad. But Kurds do. Yet, it can be argued that the Kurdish leaders have brought this upon themselves. For many of these civil servants have not received a salary for months, causing teachers in Sulaymaniya to be on strike for months as well.
Therefore, from that province – which is under the control of the second Kurdish party, the PUK – the complaint leading to the ruling was filed. This has a lot to do with the escalated tensions with the KDP, and accusations of corruption. Indeed, there is now corruption at all levels in the administration.
But since the Kurds held a referendum on independence in 2017, their rights have been restricted in various ways. For example, there are now Iraqi customs officers at the borders, which the Kurds used to guard themselves, and at the airports. This deprives the Kurds of customs revenues, and led to additional fees to compensate for this.
Minorities
Because of a court ruling, the elections for the Kurdistan parliament have been delayed, and its organization is being taken over by Baghdad. And the latest ruling from the court abolishes the eleven seats that were reserved there for minorities (Christians, Turkmen, Yazidis).
The reason: they are said to be unconstitutional. While at the same time, the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad has had the same arrangement for years. And the problem there is the same as what led to the ruling for Kurdistan: parties are incorporating those seats with their own (Christian, Turkmen, Yazidi, etc.) candidates.
Since 1992, when Saddam Hussein no longer had access to what is now more or less the Kurdistan Region, the Kurds have governed themselves. They set up their own institutions, as well as their own security services and military units (peshmerga). When Iraq became a federation according to the new constitution after Saddams fall, this was formalized.
But instead of developing that Iraqi federation, with new regions (Basra and Salahedin have unsuccessfully applied for it), the policy in Baghdad is aimed at bringing power back to the center. And that is possible because the 2015 constitution left many issues open, which the parties were to work out together. Which they fail to do due to disagreement.
Oil
Earlier, the Federal Supreme Court has already decided that the Kurdistan oil law was invalid and that the Kurds must hand over their oil revenues to the Iraqi government’s oil company, Somo. Recently, it also determined that non-oil revenues also have to go to the state treasury in Baghdad.
At the same time, Kurdistan has not sold oil via its pipeline to Turkey for about a year. This is due to an international arbitration ruling, but also because it led to a dispute between Istanbul and Baghdad that is not being resolved. The regional budget that comes from Baghdad to Kurdistan is insufficient for all costs, leading to salaries not being paid.
The irony is that teachers in the PUK region of Sulaymaniya, who are striking for this reason, now declare the court their hero because salaries will now have to come to them directly from Baghdad.
Ironic, because Baghdad simultaneously demands transparent lists of all those civil servants it has to pay – which the Kurds have refused to provide for years. Both KDP and PUK use these civil servant salaries to reward their most loyal supporters.
And ironic too because there will be no money left for public services, which are already under severe pressure. This will increase dissatisfaction with the government among Kurdish citizens even more.
Black
But it is especially ironic because oil produced in Kurdistan under ongoing contracts with oil companies is now being sold on the black market at much lower prices, or smuggled to Iran. The proceeds are not flowing back into the Kurdish regional treasury (or the Iraqi). The oil fields currently produce about 295,000 barrels per day, which at a price of 35 dollars per barrel yields 309 million dollars per month.
It thus appears that the only ones benefiting from the situation are the ruling families and their cronies. Who previously skimmed off oil and revenues, but can now unabashedly appropriate what remains after the bills for the oil companies are paid.
At the same time, they must see the writing on the wall. If all rights that Kurdistan has as a region are taken away, their power diminishes too. Therefore, there were loud protests against the rulings of the federal court. Former President Massoud Barzani openly declared that they are aimed directly at the Kurdistan Region.
Moreover, the next steps of the federal court can be guessed. It will want to bring the Kurdish peshmerga troops under the regime of Baghdad (militias are prohibited in Iraq according to the constitution, but yes, those of the Shiites have been tolerated for years). And it will want for the Iraqi security services to operate again in Kurdistan, which for the Kurds is a nightmare that reminds them of Saddam’s time.
Washington
During his recent visit to Washington, Barzani’s son Masrour and the present Kurdish Prime Minister must have conveyed the same message, with a plea to the Americans to assert their influence in Baghdad. After all, the US stood at the cradle of both the constitution and the Kurdistan Region.
But American influence in Baghdad is waning, especially since the call for their military departure from Iraq has been reignited with the Gaza war. One of the outcomes of Masrour Barzani’s visit is that the Kurds will likely participate in a joint Iraqi-American committee trying to solve this issue.
The Kurds are very keen on keeping the American military in Iraq, as a buffer against Iran and its proxies in Iraq. And the Americans do not really want to leave Iraq either. Nothing official has been communicated after Masrour Barzani’s visit, but it could be that a solution is found in a larger American presence in Erbil.
This is already the case for the American diplomatic staff, who are already in greater numbers in Erbil than in Baghdad. As Foreign Minister Blinken said after the visit: he sees a resilient Kurdistan Region as a cornerstone of the US relationship with Iraq.
Advice
But for Washington, the fact that the Kurds have ignored her advice at crucial moments will play a role too. For instance when they held that ill-fated referendum, but also when told to stop the ongoing internal discord. For that is making all this scheming so much easier for Baghdad, and has long since negated the initial lead the Kurds had in terms of welfare and economy in Iraq.
The question remains how much influence the Americans can have on the decisions of an Iraqi court that increasingly meets the criteria of being politicized. That cannot escape the influence of a Shiite elite in Baghdad, which considers the very resilient Kurdistan the Americans wish for, as a threat. And just simply views the Kurdish desire for self-governance and independence as an affront.
