President Ebrahim Raisi (63) died in a helicopter crash in the misty mountains in eastern Iran, which also claimed the life of the Iranian foreign minister. Even before it was confirmed that he had not survived the crash—the search for the crash site took many hours—fireworks were set off.
Raisi’s nickname for many Iranians inside and outside of the country is ‘the butcher of Tehran.’ His 37 years of involvement in the Iranian judiciary led to the death of thousands. As a young judge, he was responsible for the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, and later as a general prosecutor and one of the most powerful judges, he was behind the death of thousands more who were considered enemies of the regime.
Moreover, since his appointment as president in 2021, he has been involved in the Islamic regime’s open struggle to suppress women, with protesters being shot, imprisoned, and executed.
Jokes
It is no wonder that part of Iran greeted his death with joy. Or with grim jokes. ‘May 19. International Helicopter Day.’ And, referring to the fact that the helicopter crashed in a remote area: ‘May 19. International Bears Eat President Day.’ And, referring to the mist in which the helicopter disappeared: ‘Thank you, Mist. I’ve always loved you.’
One of the jokes even went global. Someone joked on Telegram that the man responsible for Raisi’s disappearance (his body had not yet been found) was a Mossad agent named Eli Kouptar. The French-Israeli station i24 did not realize that this is the Middle Eastern pronunciation of helicopter, and seriously wondered if it was more than a rumor.
In Iran, fireworks were set off, and in the diaspora, Iranians danced in the streets, such as in front of the Iranian embassy in London.
In the Syrian city of Aleppo, people took to the streets to distribute sweets. Syrian citizens have suffered greatly from Iran’s interference in Syria, which, despite years of civil war, has kept President Assad in power. Since Raisi came to power in 2021, Iranian militias have become much more active in Syria and no longer limit themselves to guarding Shiite holy sites.
Purged
That Raisi was far from popular is no news. He would never have been elected in 2021 (he had tried unsuccessfully before) if the authorities had not purged all other, more moderate candidates, as is now standard practice in Iran. He was mentioned as a successor to Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is equally hated by some Iranians. Raisi and Khamenei’s son Mojtaba were considered the top two candidates for the position. And that also led to a joke. ‘Mojtaba Khamenei: I have won.’
The way Raisi, the minister, and several other high-ranking officials died says a lot about the state of the country, due to years of sanctions over Iran’s support for various terrorist movements. The country is now largely self-sufficient, but foreign-made airplanes and helicopters have had to operate without new parts for years because Iran cannot import them.
Raisi was flying in a fifty-year-old helicopter. It then took more than twelve hours to locate the crash site, and a Turkish drone was needed to do so. This while Iran is known as a producer of drones, which are used on the Russian side in Ukraine – but not for rescue operations.
Meanwhile, Tehran is involved in everything in neighboring Iraq, has militias in Syria, spends a lot of money on terrorist groups like Hezbollah (and Hamas), encourages Iraqi militias to fire rockets at American troops and Israel, and uses Yemeni Houthis for attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf.
As a commentator put it: this country is very much in need of focusing on itself for a bit, and leaving everyone else’s business alone.
Elections
Whether that will happen is the question. While the funerals were being organized, Raisi and his foreign minister’s deputies were appointed as their successors. And within 50 days, elections will be organized for a new president.
The chance that this one will be more moderate than Raisi and the radical group of rulers he was part of, is small. The Guardian Council, which determines who can run for office, has become increasingly conservative in recent elections. For example, in a recent election for the Assembly of Experts (this 88-member body elects the Supreme Leader), even ex-President Rouhani was disqualified.
The ruling class in Iran is increasingly aware that this succession may be immanent, given Khamenei’s advanced age and poor health. Everything was prepared to smoothly transition Raisi to that position and continue the hardline policies of recent years.
And that is of great importance to the current regime. Especially given the significant pressure it is currently under, both externally and internally. Now, the regime faces a different succession than expected, and chooses for stability and security, and certainly not for relaxations and more input from the citizenry, so as to be prepared for the upcoming major succession.
Disqualification
Rouhani, who was president between 2013 and 2021, took the rejection of his candidacy for the Assembly of Experts badly. He published an open letter because he believes the rejection has larger implications. If the Guardian Council can disqualify future political leaders with whom it disagrees politically—where religion plays no role—then a president must answer to an unelected group instead of to the people. Otherwise the presidency will be his last job, Rouhani wrote.
He said he was proud of the nuclear deal his government made with the United States in 2015—a deal that had Khamenei’s approval. When Trump partially reversed it, radical elements in Iran seized on this to resume the development of nuclear technology. This led to an increase in sanctions.
The ex-president also points out that the disqualification of politicians keeps Iranians away from the polling stations. Voter turnout has steadily declined in successive elections, to below fifty percent in the 2021 election for Raisi. If another radical-conservative candidate stands now—the former mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf would be the main candidate after three previous lost elections—even fewer Iranians will vote.
The Iranian citizen is equally tired of the embargoes and sanctions, as of the harsh crackdown on women without headscarves, inflation, and currency devaluation.
Hereditary
Discontent is growing. It is suppressed with crackdowns, imprisonment, and executions, as the radical-conservative coup must be completed. And that is why it was also important on Tuesday to organize a mass of mourners to attend Raisi’s funeral—as if he was ever popular.
But what happens if after Khamenei’s death his 55-year-old son indeed becomes the new Supreme Leader, as he is now the only real candidate? And Iran will thus suddenly have a hereditary leadership again? Which was abolished after the Shah was overthrown and the Islamic Revolution came? How much support will there then be for the rulers?
