The current government and President Maia Sandu are ardent advocates of joining the EU. President Sandu wants to enshrine this desire in the constitution and is seeking the approval of the Moldovan population through a referendum. Sandu has also made EU accession the main theme for her re-election. The presidential election and the referendum are scheduled for the same day. However, a large part of the population still values good relations with Russia. Despite, or perhaps because of, the war in Ukraine, which Moldova also watches with concern being a potential next target for Putin.
EU supports Sandu
The European Commission fully supports Moldova’s desire to join the EU. On June 25 of this year, the official accession negotiations began, after the green light was already given at the end of last year. Like all other negotiations with countries wishing to join the EU, these negotiations will take years. However, both parties aim to have Moldova as a new EU member state by 2030.
Since 2016, Moldova and the EU have had an association agreement. Association agreements are intended to promote trade and financial cooperation between the EU and the respective country. The EU makes such agreements with countries both inside and outside Europe, but not in large numbers. Examples of countries with such an agreement include Canada, South Korea, and Switzerland. Moldova was thus already in a privileged position.
Deeply divided people
The most recent poll on the referendum and presidential election, conducted last Monday, seems to reassure President Sandu about the outcome. About 56% of eligible voters would support continuing the accession negotiations, and she herself is comfortably ahead of the ten other candidates running for the presidency. But polls are only a snapshot and Sunday October 20 is still three and a half weeks away.
A telling sign of the division is the top three presidential candidates. Maia Sandu is outspokenly pro-Western. The next candidate, Alexander Stoianoglo, is supported by pro-Russian parties. Finally, the third in the poll, Renato Usatii, wants good relations with both the West and Moscow.
As for the referendum, there is widespread division as well. The Party of Action and Solidarity, Sandu’s party, is of course campaigning for a yes vote in the referendum. The socialists are divided. Although they are not opposed to EU accession they accuse Sandu of using the referendum for her re-election. It remains to be seen what their voting advice will be. What the fully pro-Russian parties will advise their supporters is no mystery. Their influence should not be underestimated. This not only involves the breakaway pro-Russian region of Transnistria (which, logically, is not participating in the referendum or presidential election) but also the autonomous region of Gagauzia. There, Turkish Orthodox Christians are pro-Putin.
By the way, the Victory party of the convicted pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor was definitively excluded from participating in the referendum campaign last Tuesday. The Moldovan Supreme Court upheld an earlier decision by the central election commission that the party had not submitted the required paperwork for participation. Shor was sentenced to 15 years in prison in 2023 for large-scale bank fraud in 2014. Unsurprisingly, he is hiding in Russia.
Sandu wants a clear mandate
Earlier this month, President Maia Sandu urged Moldovans to turn out to vote in the referendum. She emphasized that Moldova has already taken significant steps toward EU membership and that now is the time for the country to fully say yes to EU membership. With a majority voting yes and Sandu re-elected as president, she would be able to further prepare the path toward accession. She acknowledged that she will not be the president to sign the final document on EU accession. If re-elected, Sandu will serve another four years as president, until 2028. Full EU membership, as mentioned earlier, is expected in 2030, which would already be exceptionally fast.
‘This is a national idea and I will not be the one to sign the document on accession to the European Union. Maybe this will be one of the politicians who presently stay aside and call themselves Europeans. This is a project of our generation. This is a project of our times and it is the only project which can give us the certainty of peace and certainty of modernization and development of this country. The Moldovans are the ones who must decide their fate.’
In three and a half weeks, we will know whether Moldova has definitively chosen the path of integration with the West.
