Twelve years after the start of the riots in Syria which led to the civil war, the Arab League has rehabilitated Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. His crimes against his own people (imprisonment, torture, bombings, and the use of chemical weapons, to name just a few) remain unpunished. For neighboring countries want to get rid of a few major problems: the flow of drugs from Syria, Iranian influence, and the millions of Syrian refugees. For them, it’s just simple realpolitik.
The millions of Syrian refugees in the region see the writing on the wall. Increasingly, there is now talk about and action towards their return. While most of them don’t want to, can’t, or dare not return. The 300,000 killed Syrian civilians, millions of internally displaced people and refugees, the birth and legacy of ISIS, and the involvement of three foreign armies in their homeland are reason enough to stay away.
According to studies, that applies to about seventy percent of the refugees in neighboring countries: Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Most of them (78 percent) have been away from Syria for five years. Their homes have been bombed, or in the best case scenario, are occupied by Assad’s army and their comrades. Many fear arrest upon return: because they evaded their military service or deserted the army, or due to their stance against Assad.
Safe
Thanks to the policies of Arab states, the saying goes: Syria is safe, people can return. But nothing has changed. Assad’s prisons are still open, hardly anyone has been prosecuted for the torture and murder that takes place there. In Syria, you can still be taken from your bed in the middle of the night or arrested at a checkpoint and disappear. It’s not about bullets or bombs, but about the fear of saying something wrong to the wrong person and the consequences of that – it’s all still the same.
Yet, in Turkey, a departure of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees is a central issue in the presidential elections, which are due for a second round later in May. And it is for both candidates. President Erdogan announced in 2022 that he would return one million Syrians to northern Syria and is now talking about their ‘voluntary return’. Opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu has even made the return of Syrians within two years the core of his election message, playing on the growing dissatisfaction of many Turks about the Syrians in their country.
According to the Syrian Barometer of 2021, more than 70 percent of Turks believe that Syrians are ‘bad for the economy of Turkey’. Two-thirds (67 percent) believe that Syrians ‘disrupt social peace and good morals by engaging in violence, theft, smuggling, and prostitution’.
The fact that, despite the growing racism and discrimination, and lack of work, these Syrians do not voluntarily return home, tells us a lot. Even the earthquake in February, in which many Syrians lost everything they had for the second time in a short period, did not lead to a large exodus from Turkey.
Curfew
Also from Lebanon, where 1.5 million Syrians live in poor conditions that are only getting worse due to the local recession and currency devaluation, people hardly return voluntarily. Racism and discrimination have increased here too, with a curfew being imposed against Syrians in many places. The Maronite patriarch stated in his sermon recently that the refugees are responsible for the economic, social, demographic, and security crisis in Lebanon.
Due to the economic crisis in Lebanon, there is a climate where Syrians are an ideal scapegoat. They are said to be ‘occupying’ the country, to be criminals, spreading viruses, and getting rich while sleeping, thanks to their UN allowances.
In recent weeks, the Lebanese army has been arresting Syrians who do not have valid registration for their stay in Lebanon. Hundreds of them have been deported to Syria, from where reports are emerging about arrests and imprisonment. In response to criticism on this policy from for example Amnesty International, the Lebanese authorities react with a ‘mind your own business’ stance.
Turkey and Lebanon, like Jordan, are target locations for the European policy to encourage the reception of Syrian refugees in the region – and thereby keep them out of the EU. The problem is that for some of these refugees the growing threat of deportation to Syria could lead to seeking refuge elsewhere. At this time, especially via human smuggling across the Mediterranean in Europe. Surely they have heard about the Syrian refugee Ryyan Alshebi, who was recently elected mayor of his hometown Ostelsheim, eight years after arriving in Germany.
Role
Because unlike in Turkey and Lebanon, where Syrians have little chance of playing a role in society, they know that this is a possibility in European countries. And where else can they seek refuge? Jordan, which had previously taken in Palestinian and Iraqi refugees, will not be eager to accommodate even more Syrians. And in Iraq, where (in total about 250,000) Syrians found shelter, both in the Kurdish Region and in Baghdad, things are not easy for newcomers either. Although many Syrians have managed to secure positions here, particularly in the hospitality industry.
But that only works if you have money, as just a residence permit can cost as much as 1200 dollars. This shows however that refugees can indeed play a role in the economy, for example if they are given the opportunity to set up their own businesses. In Iraq, numerous Syrian businessmen are active, creating jobs for their compatriots in their businesses.
If the EU does not want the latest developments in Syria to lead to a new influx of Syrians, then it should support these types of developments where it is locally necessary and possible. Only when Syrians become valued compatriots, will the threat of forced return disappear.
Realism must be decisive in this matter, not realpolitik or desired policy. As long as Assad remains in power in Syria – and with his return to the Arab League, his position is further solidified – Syrian refugees will not or barely return home on their own accord. Therefore, new policy is needed to ensure they can safely and successfully establish themselves elsewhere.
