It reminds me of the image of a rebellious teenager throwing pebbles at his Uncle Sam to get him out of the garden. But the uncle was invited by his parents. Then, he gets injured by one of those increasingly larger stones. That wasn’t the intention, the teenager wails. I’ll stop already, don’t punish me!
Of course, it’s never that simple when it comes to Iraq. And the drone attack on an American base that killed three American soldiers (and wounded at least thirty) is something far more serious than a pebble. However, the response from the perpetrator, Kataib Hezbollah, is somewhat comparable.
Back to the beginning. The Americans have about 2500 troops in Iraq to train the Iraqi army and help fight the terrorist group ISIS. Shiite militias in Iraq, linked to neighboring Iran, however, demand their departure because of the American involvement in the Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza.
Not that there is much love lost between the Shiites in Iraq and the Palestinians. When Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein at the time rewarded Palestinian ‘martyrs’ for attacks in Israel, they even hated them. Palestinians received a premium while Saddam discriminated against the Shiites and murdered their leaders. But Hamas receives support from Tehran and, like several Iraqi militias, is part of the Axis of Resistance.
Attacks
For that reason, those militias have carried out more than 160 attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria since October. A few times, the Americans have responded with targeted actions. This is the first attack in which American soldiers were killed, and Washington has made it clear that this cannot go unanswered.
Besides those attacks on the groups involved, the US has looked for other sanctions, in an attempt not to escalate the conflict further. Part of this includes sanctions against Fly Baghdad, a private Iraqi airline that has transported Iranian troops and weapons. And against Al-Hudabank, the home banker of pro-Iranian groups and Tehran in Iraq.
Interesting is what happened after the deadly attack. Firstly, Iran explicitly distanced itself from it, while simultaneously taking measures: air defense units were put in the highest state of alert, Iranian military leaders in Syria went to safe-houses and Iranian weapons were moved away from their Syrian storage.
The Iraqi government in Baghdad condemned the attack and called for de-escalation. At the same time, there were intensive efforts to achieve that, through talks with ‘all relevant parties inside and outside Iraq’.
Embarrassment
The result was a statement from Kataib Hezbollah, that it suspended its military operations against the American troops to avoid ’embarrassing the Iraqi government’. And this group, which is considered to be linked to the hip with Iran, claims that its ‘brothers in the Axis – particularly the Islamic Republic – do not know how we conduct jihad’. In other words: Iran knew nothing.
The statement also suggests that there was pressure from Tehran to stop the attacks. It’s interesting to note that Kataib Hezbollah is a member of the PMU, a platform of militias that in turn resorts under the Iraqi Ministry of Defense. And that tells you something about the extend of the Iranian influence in Iraq.
The statement doesn’t mention a duration, but from Iranian sources it’s learned that the unilateral ceasefire in Iraq will hold if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Those sources also say that the group, by suspending its activities, wants to give the Iraqi government a chance to reach an agreement with the Americans about their departure.
Because ultimately, this is what it’s all about. Iran wants to be rid of American influence in Iraq. That’s not new; the previous Iraqi Prime Minister Kadhimi also faced that same demand. He managed to agree with the Americans that they would replace their active military personnel with trainers and advisors but would remain involved in the fight against ISIS. To this day, this deal is still resented by pro-Iranian militias and seen as deceit and betrayal.
Delay
Now that his predecessor has already made that move, the current Prime Minister Sudani can’t really do much more than try to buy time. It is becoming increasingly clear that he, too, is not planning to show the Americans out; without them and the international coalition, ISIS would not have been defeated. The Shiite militias under Iranian leadership played a lesser and not uncontroversial role. And ISIS is not gone.
Sudani refers to discussions with the Americans that have been ongoing for some time about their future cooperation in the field of security. The Pentagon has already stated that these discussions are not about the withdrawal of American troops. Together, they are looking for a new name, a more acceptable label, and perhaps NATO will play a role. Because no one wants a repeat of 2011, when the American departure led to the arrival of ISIS.
If no solution for Gaza is found, there is no guarantee that Kataib Hezbollah will not go back to firing (Iranian) drones and missiles again. In the meantime, other militias in Iraq will not feel hindered to continue to do so. The first drone has already been fired towards the Americans at the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq.
That’s why a Pentagon spokesman responded to the Kataib Hezbollah statement with a simple: ‘Actions speak louder than words’.
Concerned
In the meantime, quite a few Iraqis have become concerned. They do not want to lose the Americans, if only because they still give them the feeling that Iran and the militias do not have complete control. For they remember well that during the youth protests in 2019, pro-Iranian militias (especially Kataib Hezbollah) killed activists and protesters.
Some warn about what will happen if the Americans really leave. Iran will not let us breathe, they say. Iran will not put Iraqi intellectuals and scientists in charge who can rebuild Iraq, but warlords. ‘We know the language of warlords and how they behave.’
As if to make this very clear, one of the most pro-Iranian militias issued a statement about Iraq after an American withdrawal. Al-Nujaba is the explicit face of ‘the resistance’ against the Americans and is on their terrorism list. Unlike other Iraqi militias, it is not linked to an Iraqi political party. It has carried out the majority of the over 160 attacks on American troops.
The group announces that after the departure, it will prosecute ‘traitors who dealt with the occupiers‘, or ‘they can run like what happened in Afghanistan‘. Moreover, the group wants to change laws and procedures in the field of aviation, communication, arms trade, and ‘much more’.
And this is precisely why the dance around the departure of the Americans from Iraq will continue for a bit longer.
